Can the Cubs Catch the Brewers' Offensive Firepower?

The Leadoff Man

The Cubs have a rest day today, so let's take a look at how their rivals in the NL Central are doing at the plate. I'll be using a few key stats to see who's hitting the best.

I'll be using these stats:

• BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play): Measures how often a player gets a hit when they don't hit a home run.

• wRAA (weighted Runs Above Average): Estimates how many runs a player contributes compared to an average player.

• wRC+ (weighted Runs Created Plus): How many runs a player creates adjusted for park and league factors

• OPS (On-Base Plus Slugging): Combines the ability to get on base and hit for power.

• WAR (Wins Above Replacement): An estimate of how many more wins a player is worth than a replacement-level player

I'll score each stat on a scale where 50 represents league-average performance. For example, the White Sox currently have a score of 19.52, meaning they're far below average offensively.

NL Central Hitting Power Rankings

Here's how the teams in the NL Central stack up based on their 2024 Hitting Scores. As you can see there are two contenders and then three cellar dwellers.

1. Milwaukee Brewers (MIL) - Final Hitting Score: 75.99

   • The Brewers' offense is firing on all cylinders, boasting a league-leading BABIP of .325 (signifying an unusually high rate of balls landing for hits). Combining this with an impressive OPS of .800 (which measures power and ability to get on base), they're one of the most dangerous lineups in the NL. This offensive prowess is paying off, with their wRAA of 25.4 demonstrating they're generating 25.4 more runs than a league-average team.

2. Chicago Cubs (CHC) - Final Hitting Score: 60.48

   • Despite some room for improvement, the Cubs' hitting is solidly in the middle of the pack. They're finding some luck when putting the ball in play (BABIP), and their overall ability to get on base and hit for power (OPS) is decent. Their run production (wRC+) is slightly above league average, suggesting a lineup that has potential to get better as the season goes on.

3. St. Louis Cardinals (STL) - Final Hitting Score: 38.92

   • The Cardinals' offense is one of the least productive in the league. Their luck on balls in play (BABIP) is among the worst in the league, and their overall ability to get on base and hit for power (OPS) is near the bottom. This translates to them creating fewer runs than average (wRC+) and a below-average WAR (Wins Above Replacement).

4. Cincinnati Reds (CIN) - Final Hitting Score: 36.96

   • The Reds are among the worst-hitting teams in the league. They struggle to get hits when the ball is put in play (BABIP), and their overall ability to get on base and hit for power (OPS) is near the bottom. This translates to them creating very few runs compared to the league average (wRC+).

5. Pittsburgh Pirates (PIT) - Final Hitting Score: 36.48

   • The Pirates' offense struggles in several key areas. Their ability to get on base and hit for power (OPS) is among the worst in the league. Compared to an average player, their hitters contribute significantly fewer runs (wRAA). Overall, this means their hitters are so ineffective that they could likely be replaced by average minor-league players without hurting the team's performance (WAR).

Chicago Cubs Pitching Analysis: Surprises and Disappointments

As we assess the Cubs' pitching performance against the pre-season projections from Fangraphs, a clear picture emerges of those who are outperforming expectations and those who need to step up their game. The analysis uses an algorithm combining differences in WAR, ERA, FIP, BABIP, and WHIP.

Top Performers:

1. Javier Assad - Score: 30.23

2. Hayden Wesneski - Score: 28.24

3. Mark Leiter Jr. - Score: 22.08

4. Keegan Thompson - Score: 14.94

5. Colton Brewer - Score: 12.68

These pitchers have excelled early in the season. Colton Brewer wasn’t expected to bring much to the team so his league average performance is what earned him Top Performer just above Jameson Taillon

Underperformers:

1. Kyle Hendricks - Score: -60.31

2. Jose Cuas - Score: -35.98

3. Adbert Alzolay - Score: -35.12

4. Luke Little - Score: -28.77

5. Drew Smyly - Score: -8.93

The pitchers listed above don’t come as a surprise. Cuas and Little were sent down to AAA. Adbert lost his role as the closer and is working his way back into competitive appearances in relief. Hendricks and Smyly ended up on the IL to get their “head” right.

Party in Pittsburgh this Weekend

As the Cubs head to PNC Park for a weekend series against the Pittsburgh Pirates, they'll face a mix of young pitching talent. Here’s what to expect from the Pittsburgh arms.

Friday, 6:40 pm ET

Pitching Matchup: Jameson Taillon (Cubs) vs. Jarad Jones (Pirates)

Jarad Jones, a high school standout who bypassed college play for the pros, showcases a compelling blend of raw power and refined pitching skills. Known for his fiery fastball that reaches the upper 90s and occasionally touches triple digits, Jones couples this with a menacing pair of breaking balls—his sweeping slider and a deep-curve. His improved changeup adds depth to his arsenal. Although still focusing on control over pinpoint command, Jones’s growth in maintaining composure under pressure marks him as a formidable opponent for the Cubs’ lineup.

Saturday, 4:05 pm ET

Pitching Matchup: Javier Assad (Cubs) vs. Paul Skenes (Pirates, MLB Debut)

The highlight of the weekend will likely be the MLB debut of Paul Skenes, the top draft pick in the 2023 MLB Draft is renowned for his electrifying arm. He has thrown just over 400 pitches in the minors this year and 99 of them have come in over 100 MPH.

Skenes, a former catcher turned pitcher, brings exceptional athleticism and a dominant pitching suite that includes a high-velocity fastball averaging 98 mph, a devastating slider, and an increasingly effective changeup. His ability to consistently fill the strike zone, coupled with his imposing physical presence, makes him a tough challenge for the Cubs’ hitters.

Sunday, 1:35 pm ET

Pitching Matchup: Justin Steele (Cubs) vs. Bailey Falter (Pirates)

Justin Steele will face Bailey Falter, who has had a steady yet unspectacular year in 2024. Falter's performance this season shows a pitcher capable of delivering solid innings, though lacking the flashiness of his series predecessors. This game presents a good opportunity for the Cubs to capitalize against a less formidable pitcher in Falter who has given up 7 home runs on the season.