The Leadoff Man

As the 2024 season inches closer to its conclusion, Cubs fans everywhere are holding their breath. It’s not quite time to mourn the season yet, but let’s be real—we’re getting close. At the start of the year, we knew the World Series was a long shot, but we expected to be in the mix, with 2025-2028 marked as our true window of contention. Now, after another 4-2 stretch, the reality is setting in: we need sweeps, not just series wins. The Cubs head to Miami this weekend for a crucial series against the struggling Marlins. Can they keep the dream alive? Let’s dive in.

Cubs Fight On, but Sweeps Are Needed

Cubs took 2 of 3 from both Toronto and Detroit, but series sweeps are essential to stay in the Wild Card race.

The Cubs managed to win two out of three games against both the Toronto Blue Jays and Detroit Tigers, a respectable 4-2 record. However, with their playoff hopes hanging by a thread, a 4-2 stretch isn’t enough—they need to be sweeping series. The road ahead doesn’t get any easier, starting with a weekend series in Miami against the struggling Marlins. With a record of 45-78, the Marlins are 5th in the NL East, and the Cubs need to take full advantage of this matchup.

Following Miami, the Cubs will travel to Pittsburgh for a three-game set before heading to DC to take on the Nationals, where I’ll be taking my son to the Cubs-Nationals game on August 30th. Sitting right beside the Cubs dugout will be a special moment for us.

As the season winds down, these are the moments that remind us why we’re Cubs fans. But for now, the focus remains on keeping those slim playoff hopes alive by stringing together some much-needed wins.

The Odds—A Fading Hope?

The Cubs' playoff chances are dwindling, with their odds to make the postseason dropping to just 2.7%.

The Cubs’ playoff odds took a hit this week, reflecting the uphill battle they face. Before the series against Toronto, the Cubs had a 3.3% chance of making the playoffs, but after splitting the last six games, that number has dropped to 2.7%. Their chances of clinching the division are now a meager 0.6%, and the odds of snagging a Wild Card spot sit at 2.1%. The Delta isn’t in our favor, with a slight drop across the board.

While the numbers don’t inspire much confidence, there’s still a glimmer of hope. Baseball is unpredictable, and we’ve seen stranger things happen in this sport. But with every loss, that window of opportunity closes a bit more. It’s going to take a near-perfect finish to the season and a bit of luck to turn those odds in our favor.

Wild Card Standings—The Uphill Climb

The Cubs sit 5.5 games back in the Wild Card race, with just a 2.7% chance to make the playoffs.

As we take a hard look at the Wild Card standings, it’s clear the Cubs have a tough road ahead. They’re currently 5.5 games behind the Padres, who lead the Wild Card standings with a strong 92.5% chance of making the playoffs. The Diamondbacks and Braves are also in solid positions, with the Mets hanging on by a thread. Below the Cubs are the Reds and Pirates, but neither team poses a real threat.

The Cubs’ playoff chances have dwindled to just 2.7%, making it clear that every game from here on out is a must-win. The margin for error is nonexistent, and the competition is fierce. The road to the postseason is steep, but it’s not entirely out of reach. With some luck and a lot of heart, the Cubs could still make a final push. But for now, the odds are stacked against us.

The Closer

Hope—it’s all we’ve got left as Cubs fans for the 2024 season. As the great Andy Dufresne said in Shawshank Redemption, “Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies.” While the odds are slim, and the road ahead is tough, we’re not ready to throw in the towel just yet. This weekend’s series in Miami is critical. If the Cubs can sweep the Marlins and build some momentum, maybe, just maybe, we can keep the dream alive a little longer.

So, fellow Cubs fans, let’s rally behind our team and keep believing. Baseball is a game of miracles, and until we’re mathematically out, there’s always a chance. Stay tuned for more updates as we follow the Cubs’ journey through the final stretch of the season. And remember, as Cubs fans, we’re no strangers to hope—no matter how dangerous it may be.