The Dilemma at Third Base

• As we gear up for the 2024 season, the Chicago Cubs face a pivotal decision that could shape the team's future: who will take the reins at third base? Currently, the Cubs are eyeing a mix of Patrick Wisdom and Nick Madrigal for the role, each bringing a unique set of skills and challenges to the diamond. Wisdom, known for his power, has struggled against right-handed pitchers, while Madrigal, with his knack for making contact, lacks the slugging capability often desired from a corner infielder.

Demystifying Advanced Metrics

Before we delve into the specifics of each player's performance, let's break down the advanced metrics from Fangraphs that help us understand a player's value:

• Offense (Off): Think of Off as the total points a player scores for their team, not just by hitting the ball but also by running the bases smartly. A player with a high Off score contributes more runs, similar to a student who not only aces their tests but also helps their team win group projects.

• Defense (Def): This measures how many extra games a team wins because of a player's glove work. It's like being graded on different school subjects; some positions (like subjects) are harder and more critical, so good performance there is worth more.

• Outs Above Average (OAA): This is a defensive metric. Imagine if, in a game of tag, you're "it" more times than expected because you're just that quick and smart about where to run. That's OAA in baseball – it shows how many more outs a player secures than the average player at their position.

Evaluating the Cubs plan without making any changes.

Patrick Wisdom's struggle becomes apparent with a -6 OAA, indicating defensive lapses at third base. Offensively, his difficulty against right-handed pitchers further complicates his fit for a contending team's third baseman role.

Nick Madrigal's defensive prowess is highlighted by his 6th overall ranking in Fangraphs' Defensive metric and a +10 OAA score. However, his -7.7 Offensive Metric underscores a significant gap in his power-hitting ability, a critical aspect for a third baseman.

Christopher Morel’s defensive limits struggles at third base have become a significant concern for the Cubs, particularly when evaluating his potential impact on the team's run differential. A critical metric in this evaluation is the Total Fielding Runs above average, or Rtot/yr, as provided by Baseball Reference. This statistic measures the number of runs above or below average a fielder is worth throughout 135 games or 1,200 innings. For Morel, his Rtot/yr at third base in 2023 stands at a concerning -47, indicating he was responsible for allowing 47 additional runs over that span compared to an average fielder. Wisdom was a +6 and Madrigal was +18 to put Morel’s numbers in perspective

The attempt to transition Morel to first base during the offseason by getting him work in winter ball was an interesting development, yet his return to Arizona for Spring Training without a clear position underscores the challenges he faces. While Morel's offensive capabilities, including his power, are highly regarded, his high strikeout rate further complicates his role on the team. The Cubs' acquisition of Michael Busch and the decision to trial him at third base does not bode well for Morel's standing as the long-term solution at the hot corner. Although there's hope for improvement, Morel's current defensive metrics and strategic positioning within the team indicate that the Cubs are still searching for stability at third base.

The Case for Matt Chapman

Enter Matt Chapman, a free agent whose addition could transform the Cubs' infield. Chapman's blend of a +9.2 Offense and +5.7 Defense metrics not only fills the gaps left by Wisdom and Madrigal but also adds a layer of power and reliability on both ends of the field. His signing would not only solidify third base defensively but also reintroduce the offensive firepower reminiscent of Kris Bryant and Aramis Ramirez's tenures.

Considering Matt Shaw: A Glimpse into the Future

Amidst discussions about immediate solutions, there's a budding talent in the Cubs' roster: Matt Shaw. His notable offensive skills and potential to grow into a formidable third baseman place him as a promising future asset. Shaw's progression and expected readiness for the MLB in the coming years pose an interesting dilemma: Do the Cubs opt for the immediate impact of Chapman, or do they navigate the interim with current options while awaiting Shaw's rise?

Why Chapman Could Be the Key

Matt Chapman represents more than just numbers; he brings a balance of offensive and defensive excellence that the Cubs' current options lack. His proven track record and potential to elevate the team's performance make him an enticing option for the Cubs as they aim to contend in 2024. Yet, the looming arrival of Matt Shaw offers a tantalizing vision of a homegrown talent blossoming into a key player for the Cubs, potentially altering the calculus of signing Chapman.

Conclusion: A Call to Action for Cubs Fans

As the Cubs weigh their options, the addition of Matt Chapman could mark a turning point for the team. His advanced metrics showcase a player capable of making significant contributions on both sides of the ball. Yet, the promise of Matt Shaw's development reminds us of the value of patience and the long-term vision for the team's success. As fans, our role is to support the team's decisions and rally behind the players who take the field. The journey to a stronger third base is just beginning, and the paths of Chapman and Shaw represent two compelling directions for the Cubs' future.

Why I'm Saying No to Chapman (For Now)

Let's be real, the thought of heading into the season with Wisdom and Madrigal holding down third base isn't exactly thrilling. But, here's the thing—I'm leaning away from signing Chapman. Why? Because I believe in patience and the bigger picture for our Cubs. There's something to be said for waiting it out and snagging a solid short-term rental when July rolls around. My biggest wish? We're in a strong enough spot to make that crucial addition at the deadline. Let's keep our eyes on the prize and trust the process. This is much easier said in February.

Super Fan Mark, Editor